Sullivan Comes Around

Andrew Sullivan has finally joined the Optimate position on the Middle East. After a slow to shaky start, he's come around to the distinction between Iran's Islamic Republic and Persian civilization. Money quote:

I don't think we can learn enough right now about the tensions between and within Shia and Sunni Islam. Shiite Islam, filtered through Persian civilization, may be a far more pliable force than the worst excesses of Sunni fanaticism.

This is not the end of knowledge on the subject, but it is a suitable beginning. Persia, so conceived, existed well before the arrival of Islam in the 7th century A.D. After the Arab conquest, its civilization was influenced by Islam (and influenced it in turn) as well as Arab language and culture. But Persia's conversion to Shi'a Islam in the 16th century was not solely a religious epiphany within an Arab context. It was the restoration of Persian identity. Iran, therefore, has a much longer tradition of nationhood than, well, almost every other country in the world. They're not a faceless Shi'a mass, to whom appeals can be made only on a religious basis. They are a proud nation.

So why has the Islamic Republic sustained itself for nearly 30 years? The regime's beginning gives us the biggest clue. At the outset, it was attacked by Iraq (with our tacit permission), allowing the mullahs to conflate Islamic identity with Persia-against-the-Arabs identity. With this element of power solidified, inertia alone could keep it power for some time. But there wasn't only inertia, was there? There were oil revenues in the billions! Dispensed through a suitable system of patronage, any regime could keep itself afloat on petrodollars.

Yet in recent years two things have happened: the regime's hold on both aspects of Persian identity faltered, and the world began to enter into Peak Oil times. Both props to the Islamic Republic are shaky. In that light, their recent behavior becomes far more predictable. As for our long term strategy toward them, I think Sullivan has it right again:

Our long-term strategy has to be: detach Persia from its fanatical religious leadership; wean ourselves off oil as much as possible; then reach out to Persia and Turkey as the two great Islamic civilizations that can control the unruly expanse between them.

Now how do we do that?