The Granite Crumbles?
Without me in the state, it appears that the Republican Party in New Hampshire is headed for an epic shellacking. Culled from the Union Leader's political columnists (here and here), the gloomy consensus is as follows:
- Governor: John Lynch (D) beats Jim Coburn (R) by an all-time record margin of 75% to 25%. My view is that the GOP deserves this particular smackdown. We ran a lousy candidate and didn't back him in the least. Because he was lousy. So two more years of Lynch.
- Congress, First District: Jeb Bradley (R) beats Carol Shea-Porter by a narrow 5%. The lone bright spot for the GOP in the state, but even that is sketchy. My view is that a strong seacoast turnout (read: Portsmouth) could even throw this into the Democratic column.
- Congress, Second District: Paul Hodes (D) beats Charlie Bass (R) by 5% or 10%. If this prediction holds, it would be a real disappointment. Bass has run a positive campaign and is, to my view, one of the better Congressmen in the United States. He's fiscally conservative, sensible, and forward-thinking when it matters. You know, a true New Hampshire Republican. Here's hoping he pulls it out.
- Executive Council: The Democrats pick up the seacoast seat, bringing the balance on the five-member body to 3 GOP, 2 Dem. With a Democratic governor, the three Republicans may not even constitute a true working majority on the Council.
- State Senate: Here the consensus wobbles between a split Senate (12-12) and a slight Democratic edge (14-10). I think the races are far too local to speak in broad trends, but the Senate was Democratic as recently as 2000. It could happen again.
- State House: The biggest nut for the Democrats to crack. The People's House has been under Republican control since, well, since as long as anyone can remember. Is the tide big enough to sweep away the final vestige of the ancient GOP preserve? I'll err somewhat on the side of caution and say the final tally is 220-180 in the Republicans' favor. But, as I said above, with a Democratic Governor and Senate, that margin may not mean all that much.
If all of the above comes to pass, it would be nothing short of disaster for the Republican Party. So far, New Hampshire alone has resisted the Northeast's conversion to the Democrats. If pivotal, moderate Republicans were to lose their seats (and New Hampshire lose its national cache as the remaining "swing state" in the region), the political climate gets even bleaker as sensible, New England Republicans lose influence.
More work for me in '08, I guess.
posted by Joshua @ 9:51 PM
5 Comments:
Yeah, I know two parents and several of their friends that would be very happy if New Hampshire was run by democrats for a little while. Some in New Hampshire may have been 'resisting' the swing to the democratic party, but I did want to point out that if New Hampshire goes blue, it would be due to the will of the majority of the people (well, the people who show up at the polls, that is), and there's a lot of New Hampshire-ites that have been trying to make that happen for awhile, albeit in their friendly, rational, Yankee way.
Although technically I have one democrat parent, and one who's a registered independent, because even if he consistently votes democrat, nobody's going to tell him which side to vote for, dammit, he's going to make up his mind on election day. Can you tell which of my parents is the native New Englander?
You know, I find it interesting that with the problems New Hampshire has - education funding comes to mind - and the fact that the Republicans have had a stranglehold on state government forever (house), somehow Democrats get blamed for those problems. And God forbid, should the house ever shift to the left! Why, granite will crumble beneath our feet!
Obviously, something's not working right under Rep. control. So, why not try something different for a change?
BTW, Lynch's popularity may stem from the fact that HE'S NOT CRAIG BENSON!!! He actually WORKS with people and is accessible to the citizens of this great state. If he's not getting anything done - well, look to the Republican house and senate and find your answers there.
As for Charlie Bass' "positive" campaign.....if you looked at his commercials, you'd never know he was from the GOP! No mention whatsoever of his party affiliation. Embarrassed? Ashamed? What gives Charlie? And why didn't he speak up to the NRCC about their illegal robocalls to those of us on the Do Not Call registry? He waited until it made the news and complaints started pouring into the AG's office. Just like Corker's hollow complaints about the sleazy Harold Ford Jr. ad. Hardly positive.
Anonymous:
I'm pleased to see (who I presume to be) a fellow Granite Stater commenting here. Here are my respective responses:
"I find it interesting that with the problems New Hampshire has - education funding comes to mind - and the fact that the Republicans have had a stranglehold on state government forever (house), somehow Democrats get blamed for those problems." (emphasis mine)
I'm not blaming Democrats for the education funding debacle in the least. It's not their fault. What I am doing, however, is saying that their most commonly proposed solution - a broad-based tax of some sort - would do more harm than good.
This isn't because I'm a mercenary out to protect every last dollar of mine, but because I've done a careful analysis of states that adopted broad-based taxes to solve the education funding problem. It didn't work. So while I do not blame the Democrats for the situation, I am reluctant to give them the ability to implement a solution that won't work.
I don't want to bore our non-NH readers with any more education funding talk than necessary, but let me just say this: the increase in education costs has everything to do with the federal government's unfunded mandates and wrong-handed, ham-fisted approach to education policy. No sales or income tax will ever fix that.
"BTW, Lynch's popularity may stem from the fact that HE'S NOT CRAIG BENSON!!! He actually WORKS with people and is accessible to the citizens of this great state. If he's not getting anything done - well, look to the Republican house and senate and find your answers there."
You're right after a fashion on this point. After two years of Benson's (to put it nicely) bizarre governorship, we did need a break. So, okay, we've had the break now. Let's get a real governor again!
Lynch's inability to do anything significant does not stem from the Republican Legislature. It stems from the fact that he is not a man of significance. Maybe this happens to everyone who covers a political figure up close, but on numerous occasions I have come away from conversations with Lynch (or his aides) not so much unimpressed as downright baffled. And 'accessible'? Are you serious? If by 'accessible,' you mean he shows up for photo-ops and says wildly uninformed things, then yes, he's accessible. And he LOVES the North Country! Just ask him!
Yet the Republican Party allowed Jim Coburn to run as the standard-bearer.
I guess this all means we need someone who walks back and forth
shouting, "REPUPLIC!" in a bad Winston Churchill voice. Josh, where are you?
REPUBLIC!
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