Situation in the Mideast

I agree with much of what Andrew has to say this morning about the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East.

The upside of this whole conflagration is that Iran's foreign policy is coming into sharper focus. The mullahs and their allies mean to dominate the region, and the closer they feel to victory, the more brazen their rhetoric. The leaders of Hezbollah said recently that they "welcome World War III." Now, on the first listen this sounds like the typical bombast and suicidal ranting.

But have we considered the Islamists have begun to think they can win? I know I've been throwing a lot of Tacitus at you recently, but another passage comes to mind. The relevant quote:

"Therefore, with the rumor having gained wide currency that the Roman state was being wounded by other nations too, and for this reason was gradually withdrawing from Africa, and the remnants [of their power] could be overcome, if all those for whom liberty was more powerful than slavery would rise up..."

Doesn't this sound similar? The rumors throughout the Arab and Muslim worlds must be much the same: that America is being wounded in Afghanistan and Iraq; that we are considering (as we indeed are!) withdrawing from the region; and that with a few small but significant attacks we can be expelled entirely. Iran is using Hezbollah as a non-state actor to test that theory, at the same time working to build up its own nuclear capability to take advantage of the aftermath.

Unfortunately, there is little we can do at this point, save cling to our ephemeral hope that we can 'win through' by mere perseverance. President Bush has so over-extended our military that we cannot react with swiftness or severity (if I can continue the metaphor, Tiberiur Caesar withdrew the crucial Ninth Legion from the province of Africa, leaving it in a similar lurch) to any moves by Iran. At the same time, who at this point would trust Bush with a fully prepared military machine? So we are left in the uncomfortable position of having to rely on Israel to do all of this on our behalf.

But is there any better solution?