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Wednesday, July 05, 2006

North Korea, Again

North Korea's latest missile test has caused quite a stir at the United Nations, so much so that the Security Council had a 13-2 consensus to pass a resolution to deal with the rogue state. It should come as no surprise that China and Russia - both veto-wielding members - are the two who remain opposed to such strong action. They have remained consistently committed to influencing Kim Jong Il's regime through diplomatic means.

But I have to wonder: at what point does their position on North Korea become too much baggage for them to bear? China, for one, is suffering some very bizarre depredations at the hands of their clients:

Meanwhile, North Korean officials engage in even more bizarre behavior. For example, food and fuel supplies sent to North Korea have been halted, not to force North Korea to stop missile tests or participate in peace talks, but to return the Chinese trains the aid was carried in on. In the last few weeks, the North Koreans have just kept the trains, sending the Chinese crews back across the border. North Korea just ignores Chinese demands that the trains be returned, and insists that the trains are part of the aid program. It's no secret that North Korean railroad stock is falling apart, after decades of poor maintenance and not much new equipment. Stealing Chinese trains is a typical loony-tune North Korean solution to the problem. If the North Koreans appear to make no sense, that's because they don't. Put simply, when their unworkable economic policies don't work, the North Koreans just conjure up new, and equally unworkable, plans. The Chinese have tried to talk the North Koreans out of these pointless fantasies, and for their trouble they have their trains stolen.
If Russia and China have been acting on the assumption that they could form the core of an alliance designed to balance against the United States, the North Korean debacle must serve as a setback. The only concrete diplomatic result that has come out of North Korea's erratic behavior is that the Japanese-American alliance has been strengthened, and Japan has slowly moved toward a strong military within the context of the alliance. Say what you will about our incompetent diplomacy (and there is much to say), this whole scenario strikes me as a disaster for Chinese and Russian aims in the region. Any additional commentary?

5 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think the problem that many people share is trying to view N. Korea's strategy rationally. It's not, it's based on a fantasy mindset based on the delusions of its leader who essentially has an entire nation as its plaything.

Ok, that's pretty simplistic I admit but viewing them as rational adults just doesn't seem to be working.

06 July, 2006 11:49  
Blogger Joshua said...

Oh, I don't view N. Korea as rational, but I do view China and Russia as quite rational. Which means they must be terribly vexed at N. Korea's irrational actions weakening their strategic position.

06 July, 2006 22:35  
Blogger Joshua said...

I don't think Russia or China believe they have the actual resources to form a full-blown alliance> But as I've said elsewhere, in the age of the UN, U.S. power can be slowed down and stymied by well-timed Security Council veto threats.

I totally understand why China is acting the way it is with respect to North Korea, but the point is it's unacceptable for our interests. As much as it suits China to point North Korea in the other direction, it doesn't suit us or the international community. But no amount of 'dialogue' between us will change China's interests on the matter, especially if the dialogue is only backed by the promise of more dialogue. So why not make it plain that China's support (or benign indulgence) of Kim Jong Il will have consequences? Is having North Korea as a client - and therefore 'controlled - really worth the risk of Japan re-militarizing?

08 July, 2006 10:29  
Blogger Joshua said...

Some more thoughts on Russia-China here.

12 July, 2006 12:34  
Blogger Joshua said...

And as for what kind of consequences: it's not so much what we can do, but what Japan can do.

12 July, 2006 21:28  

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