Disturbing News: A sucicide bomber blew himself up in Tel Aviv today. In addition to my immediate concern for my friend who is currently visiting Israel, this development has some pretty grim implications for both the Palestinian Authority election (in 6 days) and the Israeli one (2 months). Hamas is looking to present a serious challenge to Fatah and provoking a nasty response with a nasty bombing and then using the resulting public backlash against the Israeli crackdown to garner more support is a standard tactic of militant Palestinian groups. I should note that Islamic Jihad and not Hamas has claimed responsibility for this particular attack, but depending on how PM Olmert responds, this could provide a boost to Hamas on election day. Olmert himself has enormous shoes to fill, especially in the area of security and with Sharon gone, any upsurge in Palestinian violence could erode the ~40 seat polling numbers that Kadima still has right now, swinging things back towards Likud.

I'm not convinced that involving Hamas in the peace process is a bad idea. In the eyes of many Palestinians, they have more legitimacy than Fatah because their non-military wing is largely involved in community development, education etc. Also, Fatah carries with it the legacy of the PLO, which was an oganization in exile for years, not living under actual israeli occupation, creating a sense of detatchment. Perhaps the best way to neutralize the problem of Palestinian terrorists is to turn them into politicians. Hamas, in many ways, is in a better position to help govern the West Bank and Gaza, but because of their militant wing, Israel refuses to deal with them politically. I guess we'll have to wait and see when the election results are in, providing Olmert doesn't make the mistake of trying to postpone them, or of stopping Jerusalem residents from voting.