Clinton '08
She follows Obama and makes the counter-move. And here I thought I wasn't going to voting Republican in '08!
posted by Joshua @ 7:14 PM
She follows Obama and makes the counter-move. And here I thought I wasn't going to voting Republican in '08!
posted by Joshua @ 7:14 PM
6 Comments:
According to the NY Daily News today, Hillary is far more popular than Obama in NYC, which I guess isn't too surprising considering that she's our senator, but two things bother me.
One, Clinton has more support, and Obama less, among NYC blacks than any other racial group. Secondly, though I know that Hillary has her supporters, I've never met any of them, but apparently they make up almost half of all registered dems in my quite democratic city.
The first, and I tread lightly here, I credit to the education gap between blacks and whites in the city, which makes me believe that name recognition might have much more to do with it there than it otherwise should. Then again, Bill Clinton was the best president for Blacks since Kennedy, so who knows. Baracks numbers are also low amongst Latinos, but that might be due to the black-brown tensions that have been brewing in the when-is-our-turn-political-sphere for quite some time now. Both sides have a ligitimate cause to think that they're due in the oval office before the other. On the Black side, they've been oppressed for centuries in this country, and have been fighting for their share for just as long. On the Latino side, there are far more of them in the country, despite their influx being most prevalent in the last fifty years or so.
On a side note, I think we'll see a black president (hopefully Obama) before we see a Latino one, if only because blacks, while still facing massive discrimination and economic disparity, are still seen by the public as "American." Latinos, unfortunately, are still viewed - derogatorily, I might add - as "Mexican." The fabricated foo-foo-rah about immigration has only made this worse.
The Hillary block that I've never met, however, I'll blame on the old Jews. Just kidding, of course, but I think it's clear that Hillary's support is coming from an older generation that I don't talk politics with much. I also think that a lot of the subdivided ethnic groups usually polled as "white" - Jewish, Italian, Polish, etc. - are not as comfortable with a black candidate as they might claim on the phone, particularly in the aging generations.
All that said, I'll be voting for Obama in the primaries. If he's dropped out (hope against hope that it doesn't come to that) by the NY primary, I'll be voting for Edwards, like I did in 2004. If Hillary wins the primary, I'll be voting for her. Even if the GOP managed to nominate Giuliani - a democrat anywhere outside of NYC - the republican caucus is still too mired in the Bush administration, and won't be too anxious to admit enough of their damage, to change anything.
I don't hate Hillary. I like the idea of a policy wonk as president even more than I like the idea of breaking the oval ceiling, a phrase I hope to never actually read in this campaign. Still, I like Obama and Edwards (and Gore, if he runs) a lot more, and I think she's utterly unelectable. Let's just hope that when people see and hear more of Obama (CNN is holding a debate in April) that his numbers will keep rising.
"The fabricated foo-foo-rah about immigration has only made this worse."
Phew... I'm glad that was all a sham. Here I thought there were millions of people in this country illegally!
And now more to the topic:
I think one of the most fascinating dynamics of this election season - at least on the Democratic side - will be the wild divergences in the way Obama is perceived. I'm not in the least surprised that black voters don't respond to him as well as white voters. This makes sense for a number of reasons.
First off, the fact that Obama's decidedly not descended from plantation slaves means that in the minds of many black voters, he's missing a crucial element of the cultural narrative. Neither he nor his parents, so it goes, endured the same injustices on the path to equal citizenship. A mild distrust in this case seems only natural.
Some white voters, on the other hand, are almost pathologically anxious to vote for a viable black candidate to prove (to themselves?) that they are open-minded and that America matches their progressive vision. Remember the boomlet over Colin Powell in 1996? This boomlet existed in spite of the fact - or because of it - that Powell had said nothing substantive at all. But boy, did he have a great biography!
Yet history will show that Powell turned out to be an ineffective Secretary of State. Why? Well, despite his stunning resume, he had no talent for political maneuvers, and so he was easily outfoxed by Rumsfeld and Cheney. His penchant for following orders - only natural for a career soldier - led to the debacle at the United Nations in 2003. Had he become President, how would he have dealt with factious cabinet members and (perhaps) a Congress ill-disposed to go along with him?
So if Obama is to shore up his support among both blacks and whites, he's going to have to do more than have a nice biography and convincing oratory. Just like any other candidate, he's going to have to convince Americans that beyond his resume lie thoughtful and innovative policy proposals. That means he'll have to address old issues in new ways and address new, undiscussed issues.
Can he do that? Well, time will tell. But right now, I liken his support to Dean's in 2003. He looks great on paper, but can he lead the country?
What I meant about the "foo-foo-rah" over immigration was not that there aren't millions of people in the country illegally, but that sch a thing truly constitutes a problem, and not just an opportunity for the GOP to play on the latent racism of a lot of their supporters for some more frothing at the mouth. That's what I meant.
I'm sure I've got a little liberal white guilt in me, but that doesn't determine my vote for president. I even like Sharpton, but I didn't vote for him in 2004. Obama just radiates hope, and that's what I like.
I didn't mean to imply that your support of Obama was anything less than genuine. My point was to offer a general answer the implied question in your earlier comment: "Why do whites support Obama more than blacks?"
As I said, Obama may well be deserving of every ounce of support he's getting from whites. He also may be deserving of his weak showing among blacks. We simply don't know right now.
This article also discusses Obama's weak poll numbers among blacks.
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